By: Mike Toohill, AgVenture WSC

Bloomington, IL

Despite the brutal cold during first 3 weeks of February which resulted in very low evapo-transpiration rates, drought conditions expanded through much of the I-States last month. Rainfall amounts in the Corn Belt last month were generally under an inch except for most areas along and south of I-70 that had heavy amounts of February snow and rain (yellow and red plus colors on the above right map).

Short term implications of heading into March DRY: Although corn planting delays are likely in the soggy Mid-South, it would take a lot of spring rain to slow the corn planters down in the balance of the major corn growing areas. And with the current corn/soybean ratio favoring corn, I suspect that a dry early start would put U.S. corn acres at somewhere between 93 to 95+ million acres which would be bearish to corn price. Most of the increased corn acreage would likely be planted in the northern and western belts. Although U.S. soybean price is mainly influenced by South American weather this time of year, increased U.S. 25 corn acres and reduced U.S. soybean acres would be supportive to domestic soybean price.

Longer term implications of the current drought map: With projected 24/25 corn carryout much lower than the past 2 growing seasons (1.54 billion compared to 2 billion plus), dryer sub soils will put more “premium” on late June and July moisture than the last two years when the U.S. had more “left over” corn. And if the 25 growing season stays dry after planting, what are the chances of receiving “just in time” pollination rains again like most of the Midwest has received the last 3 growing season?

Don’t be tempted… If March stays dry and the weather is warm, my experiences say that the corn and soybean planters should still stay parked this month. Why? Over my almost 40 years walking crops in the I-States, “not much good happens when corn and soybeans are planted in March” and I’m sticking with that. Why? The weather usually turns cold and wet in early April resulting in slow corn and soybean emergence. Soybeans can “yield through” variable emergence but corn usually cannot. But if early April weather stays warm, quick emerging crops can be very vulnerable to a mid-April to early May freeze event/s.

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